Covid-19 - who is really to blame, the science, several possible cures and a few absurdities.

This section of my website contains a collation of some of the more compelling scientific references I found during the early months of the pandemic. Some of the references were provided via a forum where other scientists and engineers discuss all manner of topics. My original interest in Covid-19 was its implications for folk dancing.

The material only covers a period to about early May 2020, after which time the number of references exploded. Some later perspectives are provided but for the most part this is a summary of early views and knowledge. Two of the most notable developments by early June 2020 were that Professor Ferguson's work in advising the government based on an assumed R value as low as 2.4 led to the disease being treated as far less serious than might have otherwise been the case. The delay in 'lockdown' in the UK cost many lives - probably tens of thousands. The second point is that genetic studies of the virus showed that there was no such thing as 'patient zero', a single person arriving in the UK and from which all other cases derived. It is postulated that there were as many as 1300 cases brought into the UK, mainly from Europe (Spain, Italy etc) during the early period, and that closing the borders then could have dramatically reduced the UK infection rate. Closing the borders or quarantining arrivals commencing mid June 2020 seemed a particularly good example of ineptitude and political posturing.

SYNOPSIS of Covid 19 section.

The key point that was almost ignored by mainstream media in the early days (February and March 2020) is that the whole coronavirus pandemic was predicted and probably need never have occurred had politicians listened to scientists who (following SARS and MERS) foresaw that the next animal - human virus transmission would occur as a consequence of the extensive abuse of wildlife that occurs world-wide but especially in Asia.

A useful summary is an article in the UK Guardian newspaper of 29 April 2020 - at a time when lock-down was still in place but being weakened by people having decided (variously) to go back to work or to undertake more extensive shopping or leisure activities.

There was some suspicion that the pandemic originated instead via accidental spread of the virus from a laboratory in Wuhan (that was known to be studying coronaviruses in bats) rather than from the meat markets in the same town. Links are given below including to China's attempts to suppress information and their failure promptly to notify the WHO of human to human transmission. The Chinese government has a long history of suppressing information that dates from before the massacre of 1989 in Tiananmen Square - an event that has been all but expunged from official Chinese history. Another theory of the origin, put forward by a German scientist, was the widespread breeding in China of racoon dogs for their fur.

In the UK, and after years of cuts to basic scientific research, it seemed ironic that the government stressed at every opportunity that they were being guided by the science, especially as they made such a mess of handling the initial stages of the pandemic by promoting a simplistic 'herd immunity' model. Unlike in China, the UK government was largely unable to limit discussion on any 'leaked' documents.

The country arguably most to blame for the initial spread of the pandemic is China - as is explained below. Other Asian countries such as Thailand and Indonesia could equally have been the source of a new disease especially if the origin is eventually confirmed to have been a 'wet meat' market.

It is politically incorrect to call Covid-19 the Wuhan virus or the Chinese virus. But it may logically and factually be correct. The lasting effects of the pandemic are likely to include a large extension of the Police State, especially via electronic surveillance. This will apply both in the UK and elsewhere. The worst excesses may occur in countries that already have authoritarian governments - especially China and Russia.

Whilst about 80% of the early deaths from Covid-19 were in people who would probably have died anyway within a year (owing to old age and/or underlying chronic or acute illnesses) many of the deaths in younger people were linked to unhealthy diets and/or lifestyles - in a nutshell they were unfit and/or overweight and suffered from diabetes, obesity and other often preventable conditions. This is turn meant that their heart and lungs might already be 'overloaded' or otherwise compromised and therefore less able to deal with a virus infection. A few may not have known they had some underlying weakness. Overall however, successive governments and their health ministers have in effect presided over a National Sickness Service (rather than a National Health Service). Their failure to address poor dietary and exercise habits have contributed to many Covid-19 deaths and to much of the multi-billion pound economic dislocation caused by periods of 'lockdown'. It might have been much less expensive to ensure that the nation (and indeed people throughout the world) were both physically fit and properly fed! Having adequate vitamin D levels was suggested as an important factor in limiting the more severe phases of the disease.

A highly critical article in The Daily Telegraph of 29 April written by Dr Aseem Malhotra, an NHS Cardiologist and Professor of Evidence Based Medicine, centred attention on the UK government's failure over several decades to address obesity as a key parameter of the nation's health.

Other sections of this website are devoted to aspects of folk dancing in the UK - one of my hobbies over the last 20 years. At an early stage of the coronavirus outbreak, it was clear that local folk dance clubs should close for an extended period. Folk festivals were markedly slower to respond: they had (and have) far more to lose by postponing their events for a year or more. Almost as an aside, there was some discussion of the importance of 'social distancing' as applied to folk dance and similar 'close contact' events, and in the context of the risk from 'super-spreaders' of the virus. Folk dancing is an excellent way to keep fit - but sadly, for a while, it became arguably an especially dangerous hobby. All the major folk dance festivals - for example Chippenham, Sidmouth and Towersey were cancelled for 2020 and 2021.